Recently, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released a new market report on the renewable energy market outlook for 2023 and 2024.

The report says that by 2023, global installed renewable energy capacity will soar from 107 GW to more than 440 GW, the largest increase ever. 2023 solar will remain the main source of global renewable energy capacity expansion, accounting for 286 GW, with distributed PV accounting for nearly half of the new capacity. By 2024, that figure will grow to nearly 310GW due to falling module prices, high use of distributed PV systems, and a policy push for large-scale power plant deployment.

However, the agency said it has changed the distributed market as Law 14.300 has taken effect in early 2022. new capacity additions in Brazil may decrease from 2023 to 2024; it has revised its forecast for installed renewable energy capacity additions in 2023 and 2024 upward by 38% compared to its December 2021 forecast.

"In the EU, residential and commercial solar PV systems account for 74 percent of our expected growth, with 82 percent of the incremental growth coming from six major markets: Germany, Spain, the Netherlands, France, Italy and Sweden." The agency added.

The IEA also said the two main trends that prompted its revised forecast were the increasingly attractive business case for self-generated energy since January 2021 and the market conditions triggered by Russia's attack on Ukraine. The agency said it has also raised its forecast for growth in utility-scale PV systems, but to a much lesser extent due to permitting challenges, unsubscribed auctions and longer development timelines.

Competitive auctions are expected to remain the dominant procurement method in Europe, accounting for at least 65 percent of the growth in installed renewable energy capacity between 2022 and 2024.

The IEA said, "Nearly half of this growth will come from auctions for two-way fixed-price differential contracts led by Poland, the UK, France, Italy and Spain."

Power purchase agreements (PPAs) and commercial plants are expected to account for 22 percent of new energy installations in Europe by 2024. Corporate PPAs, led by Spain, Sweden, Germany, the Netherlands and Denmark, will account for the majority of the share of unused projects. According to the International Energy Agency, some unsubsidized projects are also likely to emerge in the United Kingdom, Italy and Poland.

The agency also said, "While installations developed on a fully commercial model are likely to be in the minority, PPA projects are expected to increase revenues by incorporating niche business models."