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The Solar Industry Is Running Hard Just to Keep Up

time:2023-09-21 09:40:27 Views:0 author:Jinan Freakin Power Ltd.

Call it the Red Queen effect: A vital renewable-energy industry is struggling with the demands of technological change. The solar industry should be thriving, with global demand for clean energy surging and supply-chain knots untangling.


Instead, solar manufacturers have seen their share prices crater this year, and executives at top firms are warning of a wave of consolidation ahead. The problem is the treadmill effect. One of the main features of the industry since its inception has been steady technological improvements, such as new designs that produce more power or new manufacturing techniques that reduce material waste. A positive consequence for consumers — and the planet — is that panel prices have, for the most part, fallen continuously, making solar the cheapest source of energy in most parts of the world. The downside is that state-of-the-art factories become obsolete in just a few years and require constant new investment just to keep up.


Investors are tiring. When Jinko Solar Co., one of the largest panel makers, announced plans last month to raise funds for a new facility, they responded by aggressively selling off the stock. The five biggest manufacturers in China, which dominates the industry, have lost a combined 347 billion yuan ($48 billion) in market capitalization since the start of the year.


In Lewis Carroll’s Through the Looking-Glass, the Red Queen tells Alice, “It takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place.” In the energy space, the phrase gained new life during the US shale boom, when companies frantically drilled new wells to make up for fast declines in production — an episode that’s now largely viewed as a textbook example of wasteful excess brought on by cheap capital. Solar isn’t shale. For one thing, solar manufacturers are generating profits, even if competition is shrinking their margins. But for investors looking for the next big thing in a fast-growing industry, the Red Queen’s wisdom is worth heeding. For all the running, only a few will be left standing.


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